Alaska Senate and Governor Combo
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Market pricing makes Dems sweep the favorite at 70% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
73% chance Peltola wins the Alaska Senate race — Polymarket • •
73% chance Peltola wins the Alaska Senate race — Polymarket • •
Can you believe that Alaska, a State I love, and won BIG, all three times, has three Republicans running against one Dumocrat for Governor? What is that all about? How stupid are we to do this? On top of it all, we have the Corrupt Ranked Choice System of Voting, which shouldn’t be allowed in our Country and will, hopefully, be repealed in the November Vote! In any event, we have one Great Candidate running for the United States Senate. His name is Dan S. Sullivan, and he is the Incumbent, and doing a phenomenal job — Bringing more business to Alaska than any other Senator in U.S. History. Alaska needs Senator Dan S. Sullivan in the Senate, and Congressman Nick Begich, in Congress — That is a fantastic team. GET OUT AND VOTE! I’ll be coming to Alaska soon, and look forward to seeing you all just to make sure you do so. Early Voting starts October 19th. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’ Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper based at the University of Virginia, has shifted its race rating for the Alaska Senate race to be more optimistic for Democrats. The outlet moved the race to “Leans Democrat” from “Toss-up,” showing that polling data and other indicators are increasingly suggesting former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) could topple…
AARP poll has Alaska races after RCV as • • Senate: Peltola +6 • House: Begich +14 • •
Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024. But Democrat Mary Peltola is now a slight favorite to flip its Senate seat. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Peltola a 61% shot of defeating Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, making #AKSen the Democrats' 2nd-most likely flip after #NCSen.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Alaska that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with the party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.