AL-02 House Election Winner
Open8as of
Market pricing makes Rhett Marques (R) the favorite at 70% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
President Trump is heading to campaign in Mobile, Alabama today, which is split between the state's 1st & 2nd congressional districts. House Republicans are looking to flip the 2nd congressional district, which is represented by Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures.
Mobile is partly in #AL02, where Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures has a tough reelection race after redistricting
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).