2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

CNN: Republicans are in a tough race to hold on to dozens of House seats and several key Senate seats, as voter discontent grows over rising prices and a deeply unpopular war with Iran, with neither issue showing a clear prospect of ending the crisis.

With three months until the US midterm elections, the races in both the House and Senate are close, and both Trump and Democrats are struggling with low support.

Democrats Lead by 8 Percentage Points 100 Days Ahead of US Midterm Elections… Warning Lights for Trump

CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the midterms

Per a new memo, House Majority PAC touts that Dems are in a “commanding positionâ€� to win back the majority • • HMP argues that Dems have created “a winning message on affordabilityâ€� while Republicans “have done nothing but raise costs and start new wars.â€�

House Republicans ‘in the strongest position’ ever 100 days from midterms: Memo

AM: 100 DAYS OUT: HOUSE GOP IN DANGER ZONE • • Sunday is 100 days ahead of the midterm elections. The House is gone for five weeks. And things are looking bleak for the House Republican majority. • • Two congressional generic ballots from July showed Democrats up by seven and 11 points. Gas prices have soared to more than $4 per gallon again — and they’re heading higher as the unpopular Iran war grinds on. • • President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stumbling along at record lows, while interest rates are up and inflation remains elevated. Trump launched yet another new tariff regime on Thursday night. Young people can’t find jobs even though unemployment is low. Polling shows voters trust Democrats more on nearly every major issue from immigration to the economy. • • Plus, midterm history is against Republicans. The Democratic base is very motivated to vote against Trump and the House GOP majority is historically small. Democrats will only need to net four seats to win. • • There are bright spots for the GOP, and we’ll get to those. • • Yet let’s also look at what the House Republican majority did in its final substantive legislative stretch before Election Day. Republicans passed a voter ID law that looks DOA in the Senate while also approving a framework to spend billions of dollars more on the Iran war. • • We’ll note that the GOP thinks they’ll be able to use Democratic votes against a stock-trading ban and voter ID bill in TV ads regardless of whether they pass the Senate. And some Democrats want to make sure the troops are funded even if they’re against the war. • • But overall, the House Republican majority — roiled by retirements, shutdowns, scandals and infighting — is ripe to disappear. Yet can Democrats, who are pretty unpopular themselves, find their way into the majority? And if so, by what kind of margin? • • • • @allymutnick @maxpcohen

AM: 100 DAYS OUT: HOUSE GOP IN DANGER ZONE • • Sunday is 100 days ahead of the midterm elections. The House is gone for five weeks. And things are looking bleak for the House Republican majority. • • Two congressional generic ballots from July showed Democrats up by seven and 11 points. Gas prices have soared to more than $4 per gallon again — and they’re heading higher as the unpopular Iran war grinds on. • • President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stumbling along at record lows, while interest rates are up and inflation remains elevated. Trump launched yet another new tariff regime on Thursday night. Young people can’t find jobs even though unemployment is low. Polling shows voters trust Democrats more on nearly every major issue from immigration to the economy. • • Plus, midterm history is against Republicans. The Democratic base is very motivated to vote against Trump and the House GOP majority is historically small. Democrats will only need to net four seats to win. • • There are bright spots for the GOP, and we’ll get to those. • • Yet let’s also look at what the House Republican majority did in its final substantive legislative stretch before Election Day. Republicans passed a voter ID law that looks DOA in the Senate while also approving a framework to spend billions of dollars more on the Iran war. • • We’ll note that the GOP thinks they’ll be able to use Democratic votes against a stock-trading ban and voter ID bill in TV ads regardless of whether they pass the Senate. And some Democrats want to make sure the troops are funded even if they’re against the war. • • But overall, the House Republican majority — roiled by retirements, shutdowns, scandals and infighting — is ripe to disappear. Yet can Democrats, who are pretty unpopular themselves, find their way into the majority? And if so, by what kind of margin? • • • • @allymutnick @maxpcohen

AM: 100 DAYS OUT: HOUSE GOP IN DANGER ZONE • • Sunday is 100 days ahead of the midterm elections. The House is gone for five weeks. And things are looking bleak for the House Republican majority. • • Two congressional generic ballots from July showed Democrats up by seven and 11 points. Gas prices have soared to more than $4 per gallon again — and they’re heading higher as the unpopular Iran war grinds on. • • President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stumbling along at record lows, while interest rates are up and inflation remains elevated. Trump launched yet another new tariff regime on Thursday night. Young people can’t find jobs even though unemployment is low. Polling shows voters trust Democrats more on nearly every major issue from immigration to the economy. • • Plus, midterm history is against Republicans. The Democratic base is very motivated to vote against Trump and the House GOP majority is historically small. Democrats will only need to net four seats to win. • • There are bright spots for the GOP, and we’ll get to those. • • Yet let’s also look at what the House Republican majority did in its final substantive legislative stretch before Election Day. Republicans passed a voter ID law that looks DOA in the Senate while also approving a framework to spend billions of dollars more on the Iran war. • • We’ll note that the GOP thinks they’ll be able to use Democratic votes against a stock-trading ban and voter ID bill in TV ads regardless of whether they pass the Senate. And some Democrats want to make sure the troops are funded even if they’re against the war. • • But overall, the House Republican majority — roiled by retirements, shutdowns, scandals and infighting — is ripe to disappear. Yet can Democrats, who are pretty unpopular themselves, find their way into the majority? And if so, by what kind of margin? • • • • @allymutnick @maxpcohen

AM: 100 DAYS OUT: HOUSE GOP IN DANGER ZONE • • Sunday is 100 days ahead of the midterm elections. The House is gone for five weeks. And things are looking bleak for the House Republican majority. • • Two congressional generic ballots from July showed Democrats up by seven and 11 points. Gas prices have soared to more than $4 per gallon again — and they’re heading higher as the unpopular Iran war grinds on. • • President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stumbling along at record lows, while interest rates are up and inflation remains elevated. Trump launched yet another new tariff regime on Thursday night. Young people can’t find jobs even though unemployment is low. Polling shows voters trust Democrats more on nearly every major issue from immigration to the economy. • • Plus, midterm history is against Republicans. The Democratic base is very motivated to vote against Trump and the House GOP majority is historically small. Democrats will only need to net four seats to win. • • There are bright spots for the GOP, and we’ll get to those. • • Yet let’s also look at what the House Republican majority did in its final substantive legislative stretch before Election Day. Republicans passed a voter ID law that looks DOA in the Senate while also approving a framework to spend billions of dollars more on the Iran war. • • We’ll note that the GOP thinks they’ll be able to use Democratic votes against a stock-trading ban and voter ID bill in TV ads regardless of whether they pass the Senate. And some Democrats want to make sure the troops are funded even if they’re against the war. • • But overall, the House Republican majority — roiled by retirements, shutdowns, scandals and infighting — is ripe to disappear. Yet can Democrats, who are pretty unpopular themselves, find their way into the majority? And if so, by what kind of margin? • • • • @allymutnick @maxpcohen

AM: 100 DAYS OUT: HOUSE GOP IN DANGER ZONE • • Sunday is 100 days ahead of the midterm elections. The House is gone for five weeks. And things are looking bleak for the House Republican majority. • • Two congressional generic ballots from July showed Democrats up by seven and 11 points. Gas prices have soared to more than $4 per gallon again — and they’re heading higher as the unpopular Iran war grinds on. • • President Donald Trump’s approval rating is stumbling along at record lows, while interest rates are up and inflation remains elevated. Trump launched yet another new tariff regime on Thursday night. Young people can’t find jobs even though unemployment is low. Polling shows voters trust Democrats more on nearly every major issue from immigration to the economy. • • Plus, midterm history is against Republicans. The Democratic base is very motivated to vote against Trump and the House GOP majority is historically small. Democrats will only need to net four seats to win. • • There are bright spots for the GOP, and we’ll get to those. • • Yet let’s also look at what the House Republican majority did in its final substantive legislative stretch before Election Day. Republicans passed a voter ID law that looks DOA in the Senate while also approving a framework to spend billions of dollars more on the Iran war. • • We’ll note that the GOP thinks they’ll be able to use Democratic votes against a stock-trading ban and voter ID bill in TV ads regardless of whether they pass the Senate. And some Democrats want to make sure the troops are funded even if they’re against the war. • • But overall, the House Republican majority — roiled by retirements, shutdowns, scandals and infighting — is ripe to disappear. Yet can Democrats, who are pretty unpopular themselves, find their way into the majority? And if so, by what kind of margin? • • • • @allymutnick @maxpcohen

Pair it with this Fox News poll, which has the generic at D+7 -- also a big gulf on the generic. • • "If the election were today, 53% of voters would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 46% the Republican. That 7-point edge is just outside the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 5 points in April. Notably, 53% is the highest percentage either party has received on the generic House ballot in Fox News polling since 1996." • •

NEW: Brand new @FoxNews power rankings give us a look at the landscape ahead of the November midterms. • - Dems up 4 points over GOP in party preference, a 5 point swing against GOP since 2024. • - Senate likely to be decided by AK, IA, OH, & ME • - Dems still in good shape to retake the House, but GOP losses may be blunted by redistricting wins. 16 toss up races in House. • - GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1996. • - Dems haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas since 1990.

NEW: Brand new @FoxNews power rankings give us a look at the landscape ahead of the November midterms. • - Dems up 4 points over GOP in party preference, a 5 point swing against GOP since 2024. • - Senate likely to be decided by AK, IA, OH, & ME • - Dems still in good shape to retake the House, but GOP losses may be blunted by redistricting wins. 16 toss up races in House. • - GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1996. • - Dems haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas since 1990.

NEW: Brand new @FoxNews power rankings give us a look at the landscape ahead of the November midterms. • - Dems up 4 points over GOP in party preference, a 5 point swing against GOP since 2024. • - Senate likely to be decided by AK, IA, OH, & ME • - Dems still in good shape to retake the House, but GOP losses may be blunted by redistricting wins. 16 toss up races in House. • - GOP hasn’t won a Senate seat in Michigan since 1996. • - Dems haven’t won a Senate seat in Texas since 1990.

HOUSE • • Democrats are favored to flip the House. • • Democrats - 61% probability • Republicans - 39% probability • • Democrats are favored in 226 seats and Republicans are favored in 209 seats. • •

HOUSE • • Democrats are favored to flip the House. • • Democrats - 61% probability • Republicans - 39% probability • • Democrats are favored in 226 seats and Republicans are favored in 209 seats. • •

Republicans feel increasingly upbeat about their chances in the midterms

US Democrats in swing states are considering withdrawing, creating headwinds for securing a majority in the midterm elections.

US Democrats in swing states are considering withdrawing, creating headwinds for securing a majority in the midterm elections.

US Democrats in swing states are considering withdrawing, creating headwinds for securing a majority in the midterm elections.

US Democrats in swing states are considering withdrawing, creating headwinds for securing a majority in the midterm elections.

Leftist insurgents rattle Democrats ahead of US midterms

Leftist insurgents rattle Democrats ahead of US midterms

Leftist insurgents rattle Democrats ahead of US midterms

"Wake up call": House Democrats erupt in panic, anger after another socialist upset

"Wake up call": House Democrats erupt in panic, anger after another socialist upset

"Wake up call": House Democrats erupt in panic, anger after another socialist upset

"Wake up call": House Democrats erupt in panic, anger after another socialist upset

There are midterms where this is holding up until October, then the bottom falls out for the president's party (2006, 2014); there are midterms where the in-party actually makes it a choice, not a referendum and it holds through voting (2018 in Senate, 2022).