2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
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Market pricing makes Other the favorite at 46% across 14 tracked outcomes, as of .
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
What do the polls say; Will Trump's performance bring down Republicans? The cost and declining satisfaction with Trump's performance have severely weakened Republicans' position ahead of the midterm elections. Democrats are leading by eight percentage points in the voter preference poll for the House of Representatives; but the final result will depend on turnout and district competitions. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
What do the polls say; Will Trump's performance bring down Republicans? The cost and declining satisfaction with Trump's performance have severely weakened Republicans' position ahead of the midterm elections. Democrats are leading by eight percentage points in the voter preference poll for the House of Representatives; but the final result will depend on turnout and district competitions. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
What do the polls say; Will Trump's performance bring down Republicans? The cost and declining satisfaction with Trump's performance have severely weakened Republicans' position ahead of the midterm elections. Democrats are leading by eight percentage points in the voter preference poll for the House of Representatives; but the final result will depend on turnout and district competitions. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
What do the polls say; Will Trump's performance bring down Republicans? The cost and declining satisfaction with Trump's performance have severely weakened Republicans' position ahead of the midterm elections. Democrats are leading by eight percentage points in the voter preference poll for the House of Representatives; but the final result will depend on turnout and district competitions. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
GOP sees House prospects grow bleaker as districts shift to blue Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the landscape for House Republicans grows grimmer by the day. President Trump’s approval ratings are low and sinking. The GOP’s emergency redistricting campaign has fallen short of its goals. And the volatile economy has voters on edge and thirsty for change. The combination has created a…
GOP sees House prospects grow bleaker as districts shift to blue Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the landscape for House Republicans grows grimmer by the day. President Trump’s approval ratings are low and sinking. The GOP’s emergency redistricting campaign has fallen short of its goals. And the volatile economy has voters on edge and thirsty for change. The combination has created a…
GOP sees House prospects grow bleaker as districts shift to blue Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the landscape for House Republicans grows grimmer by the day. President Trump’s approval ratings are low and sinking. The GOP’s emergency redistricting campaign has fallen short of its goals. And the volatile economy has voters on edge and thirsty for change. The combination has created a…
GOP sees House prospects grow bleaker as districts shift to blue Less than a month out from the midterm elections, the landscape for House Republicans grows grimmer by the day. President Trump’s approval ratings are low and sinking. The GOP’s emergency redistricting campaign has fallen short of its goals. And the volatile economy has voters on edge and thirsty for change. The combination has created a…
Democrats fear they might be reaching too far in push for huge House margin
Democrats fear they might be reaching too far in push for huge House margin
Democrats fear they might be reaching too far in push for huge House margin
Tillis: ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for Republicans to win House in midterms Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump. “I’m supporting the president because he’s the head…
Tillis: ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for Republicans to win House in midterms Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump. “I’m supporting the president because he’s the head…
Tillis: ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for Republicans to win House in midterms Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump. “I’m supporting the president because he’s the head…
Tillis: ‘Almost statistically impossible’ for Republicans to win House in midterms Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Monday it is “almost statistically impossible” for the Republican Party to retain control of the House in the 2026 midterm elections. Appearing on MS NOW’s “The Beat,” host Ari Melber asked the senator about divisions within the GOP driven by President Trump. “I’m supporting the president because he’s the head…
DDHQ Polling Average Update • • Democrats lead the generic ballot by almost seven percentage points. • • Both Republican and Democratic vote shares have seen an uptick in the last few days, with Democrats now at their highest vote share of the cycle.
DDHQ Polling Average Update • • Democrats lead the generic ballot by almost seven percentage points. • • Both Republican and Democratic vote shares have seen an uptick in the last few days, with Democrats now at their highest vote share of the cycle.
Republicans are pouring money into more than three dozen US House races previously considered “safe” after internal polling showed they could be vulnerable in the November 3 election, per Republican operatives familiar with the party’s thinking.
DEMOCRATS HOLD 12-POINT MIDTERM EDGE IN NEW POLL • • Democrats lead Republicans 53% to 41% among registered voters in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. • • Trump’s approval stands at 39%, while 59% disapprove. 45% of voters say their congressional vote is a vote against Trump, versus about a quarter voting to support him. • • The poll surveyed 1,280 people and carries a ±3.8-point margin of error.
New: Publicly, Republicans insist there's a chance for midterm victory. Privately, they say the writing is on the wall. • • "We’re gonna get crushed. The only question is by how much," one House Republican said. • • The GOP outlook w/ 6 weeks to go, @MSNOWNews: •
New: Publicly, Republicans insist there's a chance for midterm victory. Privately, they say the writing is on the wall. • • "We’re gonna get crushed. The only question is by how much," one House Republican said. • • The GOP outlook w/ 6 weeks to go, @MSNOWNews: •
New: Publicly, Republicans insist there's a chance for midterm victory. Privately, they say the writing is on the wall. • • "We’re gonna get crushed. The only question is by how much," one House Republican said. • • The GOP outlook w/ 6 weeks to go, @MSNOWNews: •
New: Publicly, Republicans insist there's a chance for midterm victory. Privately, they say the writing is on the wall. • • "We’re gonna get crushed. The only question is by how much," one House Republican said. • • The GOP outlook w/ 6 weeks to go, @MSNOWNews: •
Reuters poll: 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Democrats have gained their biggest midterm advantage since Trump returned to the presidency, winning 44% to 37% of Republicans in the general election vote. Democrats also edged ahead of Republicans on the economy, winning 38% to 37%, the first time they have had a lead on the issue in about a decade. Meanwhile, 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress; this opposition includes nearly 40% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats./Election
Reuters poll: 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Democrats have gained their biggest midterm advantage since Trump returned to the presidency, winning 44% to 37% of Republicans in the general election vote. Democrats also edged ahead of Republicans on the economy, winning 38% to 37%, the first time they have had a lead on the issue in about a decade. Meanwhile, 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress; this opposition includes nearly 40% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats./Election
Reuters poll: 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Democrats have gained their biggest midterm advantage since Trump returned to the presidency, winning 44% to 37% of Republicans in the general election vote. Democrats also edged ahead of Republicans on the economy, winning 38% to 37%, the first time they have had a lead on the issue in about a decade. Meanwhile, 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress; this opposition includes nearly 40% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats./Election
Reuters poll: 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Democrats have gained their biggest midterm advantage since Trump returned to the presidency, winning 44% to 37% of Republicans in the general election vote. Democrats also edged ahead of Republicans on the economy, winning 38% to 37%, the first time they have had a lead on the issue in about a decade. Meanwhile, 63% of Americans oppose Trump's offer to pay $5,000 if Republicans retain control of Congress; this opposition includes nearly 40% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats./Election
Democrats lead in elections amid US economic woes A Reuters-Ipsos poll shows Democrats leading the general election for Congress with 44% to 37% for Republicans. 38% of respondents believe voting for Democrats would improve their economic situation, while 37% of respondents say the same about Republicans, marking the first time in a decade that Democrats have a lead on this issue. 63% of Americans oppose Trump's proposal to pay a $5,000 dividend if he wins Congress. @iribnews
New poll: Democrats lead by 7 percentage points ahead of US midterm elections A new poll shows that the Democratic Party has surpassed the Republican Party by a margin of seven percentage points a few weeks before the US midterm elections; a result that could make it difficult for Donald Trump to implement his agenda in the remaining two years of his second term. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
Democrats' hopes of taking control of Congress are rising; polls indicate they are ahead of Republicans by 3 points.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.