Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? Odds fell to 40% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 50.4¢ to 40.4¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from theguardian.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match50.4¢
+5m50.4¢
+30m40.4¢
+1h40.4¢
1h move-10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 40.4¢ → 0.5¢-39.9 ptsafter a signal from WSJ Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yestheguardian.com95%match
Live: The former foreign secretary Yvette Cooper has also entered No 10 – shortly before Ed Miliband was appointed to that role. More on her future as we get it. Yvet

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$10K

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Will Yvette Cooper be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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