Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? Odds fell to 53% on Sep 4, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? On , the market’s odds fell from 73.5¢ to 52.5¢ (-21 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from nikkei. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match73.5¢
+5m73.5¢
+30m73.5¢
+1h52.5¢
+24h79¢
1h move-21 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Neutralnikkei97%match
Corporate delegation to accompany Xi Jinping on his visit to the United States; Washington visit in late September
Yesnikkei.com97%match
A corporate delegation will accompany Xi Jinping on his visit to Washington in late September.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$659K

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Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for When will Xi Jinping visit US? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.