Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? Odds jumped to 99% on Aug 5, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? On , the market’s odds jumped from 76¢ to 98.6¢ (+22.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
76¢
69.5¢
96.6¢
98.6¢
+22.6 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Neutralnytimes.com97%match
Live: Don’t expect an early call in Missouri’s First Congressional District. In 2024, the race was not called until 11 p.m. Eastern time --- three hours after polls closed --- when Wesley Bell, who was heavily supported by AIPAC, unseated Cori Bush, a progressive, by about five percentage points.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
$292K
Follow this market
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.