Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? Odds fell to 4% on Aug 28, 2026

FED'S WARSH: 'HARD-PRESSED' TO CALL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS RESTRICTIVE • • In his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair, Warsh said the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to its objective, or "we have work to do." He said the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices, called the 2% PCE target firm and fixed, and said it is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices. • • On inflation: • - The numbers are "more concerning" on price stability • - This summer's inflation data came in better than expected, but he said do not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully changed • - Inflation expectations by and large look stable in the medium term, and market prices show confidence the Fed will deliver price stability • - Inflation expectations tend to look durable until they don't, and must be closely minded • - Wage growth is moderate, but not a reliable indicator of future inflation • • On the economy: • - Impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened • - Consumer spending healthy, labor markets stable, business investment rising rapidly • - Credit and loan markets showing few signs of policy restraint • - Important to gauge the effects of high growth expectations for capex and corporate earnings • • On July: a "good majority" felt the wiser course was to wait. • • The backdrop: • - Warsh became the 17th Fed chair on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell, and has held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% at both meetings since • - Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented on July 29 in favor of a quarter-point hike • - Hammack said earlier Friday it is time for the Fed to act with rate hikes and that inflation will end the year around 3% • - The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on August 17, its highest since 2007 • - Treasury moved into the bond market on August 19, and Secretary Scott Bessent has set out a plan to at least double the weekly buyback program starting September 9, per CNBC • - Warsh told Congress the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation" • - He has set up five task forces reviewing communications, balance sheet policy, data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks • • The 2026 symposium theme is "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." No policy statement comes out of Jackson Hole. The next FOMC meeting is September 15 to 16, with a Summary of Economic Projections.