Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 10–15%? Odds jumped to 48% on Aug 5, 2026

OpenMove

Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 10–15%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 39.5¢ to 47.5¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Decision Desk (DDHQ).

How did the odds move?

At match39.5¢
+5m41¢
+30m42¢
+1h47.5¢
+24h47¢
1h move+8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 39.5¢ → 48¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 10% in): Kansas Governor Republican Primary • • Ty Masterson (R): 11,881 (37.6%) • Philip Sarnecki (R): 6,125 (19.4%) • Vicki Schmidt (R): 5,366 (17.0%) • Scott Schwab (R): 4,100 (13.0%) • Charlotte O'Hara (R): 2,979 (9.4%) • • Follow more results here: •
NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 19% in): Kansas Governor Republican Primary • • Ty Masterson (R): 22,909 (40.2%) • Philip Sarnecki (R): 11,164 (19.6%) • Vicki Schmidt (R): 10,165 (17.8%) • Scott Schwab (R): 6,695 (11.7%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$2K

Follow this market

Will Ty Masterson win the Kansas Republican Governor primary by 10–15%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Kansas Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.