Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? Odds jumped to 82% on Oct 8, 2026
OpenMove
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin by October 31? On , the market’s odds jumped from 69¢ to 82¢ (+13 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from alarabiya.
How did the odds move?
At match69¢
+5m74¢
+30m75.5¢
+1h82¢
1h move+13 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Oct 8, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
74¢ → 82.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
74.5¢ → 82.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from alhadath
What moved the odds?
Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
▲Yesalarabiya96%match
"They may speak by phone later"... Kremlin: Trump did not congratulate Putin on his birthday, but they... The Kremlin announced that US President Donald Trump did not send a congratulatory telegram to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on his birthday. The Kremlin spokesman indicated that a conversation between Putin and Trump may take place at a mutually agreed-upon time. Trump had expressed his hope that Russia had contained a suspected outbreak of plague and said he had arranged a phone call with Putin. Trump and Putin have spoken by phone five times since the beginning of this year, the last time being on September 8, according to the Kremlin.
Neutralalhadath96%match
"They may speak by phone later"... Kremlin: Trump did not congratulate Putin on his birthday, but they... The Kremlin announced that US President Donald Trump did not send a congratulatory telegram to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on his birthday. The Kremlin spokesman indicated that a conversation between Putin and Trump may take place at a mutually agreed-upon time. Trump had expressed hope that Russia had contained a suspected outbreak of plague and said he had arranged a phone call with Putin. Trump and Putin have spoken by phone five times since the beginning of this year, the last time being on September 8, according to the Kremlin.
▲Yesalhadath96%match
"They may speak by phone later"... Kremlin: Trump did not congratulate Putin on his birthday, but they... The Kremlin announced that US President Donald Trump did not send a congratulatory telegram to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on his birthday. The Kremlin spokesman indicated that a conversation between Putin and Trump may take place at a mutually agreed-upon time. Trump had expressed hope that Russia had contained a suspected outbreak of plague and said he had arranged a phone call with Putin. Trump and Putin have spoken by phone five times since the beginning of this year, the last of which was on September 8, according to the Kremlin.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 81% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .