Will Trump say "Russia" during events with Turkish president? Odds fell to 53% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Trump say "Russia" during events with Turkish president? On , the market’s odds fell from 99.5¢ to 53.1¢ (-46.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintl. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match99.5¢
+5m53.1¢
+30m53.1¢
+1h53.1¢
1h move-46.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 99.5¢ → 53.1¢-46.3 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 99.5¢ → 53.1¢-46.4 ptsafter a signal from J.Post / i24 Reporter
  • 53.1¢ → 99.7¢+46.7 ptsafter a signal from anadoluajansi

What moved the odds?

Neutraliranintl99%match
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the issue of F-35 fighter jets is not a new issue and Ankara is still waiting for the fulfillment of the promise to deliver five of these fighters. He expressed hope that this issue will develop positively at the NATO leaders' meeting. Erdogan also said that he will discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the indigenous "Kan" fighter engines during his meeting with Donald Trump.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$168

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Will Trump say "Russia" during events with Turkish president? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for What will Trump say during bilateral meeting with Turkish President? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.