Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times at Defense and Innovation Summit? Odds fell to 67% on Jul 15, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times at Defense and Innovation Summit? On , the market’s odds fell from 76.5¢ to 66.5¢ (-10 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from alhadath. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 76.5¢ → 66.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya
- 67.5¢ → 50¢-17.5 ptsafter a signal from foxnews.com
- 66.5¢ → 99.5¢+33 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 69¢ → 99.6¢+30.6 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
- 65.5¢ → 99.6¢+34.1 ptsafter a signal from Sky News Arabia
- 68¢ → 99.6¢+31.6 ptsafter a signal from Al Hadath
- 68¢ → 99.6¢+31.6 ptsafter a signal from dbws.io
- 69¢ → 99.6¢+30.6 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 61.5¢ → 99.6¢+38.1 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
What moved the odds?
Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
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Will Trump say "Iran" 3+ times at Defense and Innovation Summit? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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