Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" during his Executive Order signing? Odds jumped to 100% on Aug 3, 2026

Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" during his Executive Order signing? On Aug 3, 2026, 17:44 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 85.5¢ to 100¢ (+14.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from whitehouse. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 3, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Aug 3, 2026, 17:47 UTC85¢ → 100¢+15 ptsafter a signal from potus

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen Aug 3, 2026, 17:47 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 15:49 UTC.

Vol$1K

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Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" during his Executive Order signing? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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