Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16? Odds fell to 2% on Jul 17, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16? On , the market’s odds fell from 10¢ to 1.5¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from iranintlbrk. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match10¢
+5m12.5¢
+30m4.5¢
+1h1.5¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 17, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 26.5¢ → 1.5¢-25 ptsafter a signal from yna.co.kr
  • 13.5¢ → 1.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 13.5¢ → 1.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from sedaily.com

What moved the odds?

Neutraliranintlbrk94%match
Trump: We have concluded that America's adversaries, including at least Russia, China, the Islamic Republic of Iran, North Korea, as well as non-state actors, have the ability to infiltrate America's election infrastructure.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$19K

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Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Which countries will Trump accuse of election interference by July 16? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.