Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? Odds jumped to 37% on Jul 10, 2026

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? On Jul 10, 2026, 14:38 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 29¢ to 37¢ (+8 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen Jul 10, 2026, 14:46 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Aug 30, 2026, 19:18 UTC.

Vol$420K

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Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.