Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Odds jumped to 27% on Jul 8, 2026

Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? On Jul 8, 2026, 08:17 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 15.5¢ to 27¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 6-source news cluster, from Al Arabiya. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 8, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Jul 8, 2026, 08:27 UTC37¢ → 26.5¢-10.5 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya

What moved the odds?

Part of a 6-source news cluster, first seen Jul 8, 2026, 08:18 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 15:50 UTC.

Vol$726K

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Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.