Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? Odds jumped to 100% on Jul 13, 2026

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? On Jul 13, 2026, 14:17 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 79¢ to 99.9¢ (+20.9 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen Jul 13, 2026, 14:17 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 15:50 UTC.

Vol$293K

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Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for US announces blockade on Iran — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.