Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Odds jumped to 69% on Sep 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 24.5¢ to 68.5¢ (+44 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match24.5¢
+5m84.5¢
+30m65.5¢
+1h68.5¢
+24h100¢
1h move+44 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 88¢ → 75.5¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 70.5¢ → 88.5¢+18 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralReuters97%match
Sweden Democrats Projected to Win 17.2% of Votes in Election vs 20.5% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
YesReuters97%match
Rpt-Sweden Democrats Projected to Win 17.2% of Votes in Election vs 20.5% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$66K

Follow this market

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.