Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? Odds fell to 28% on Sep 13, 2026

OpenMove

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? On , the market’s odds fell from 71¢ to 27.5¢ (-43.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from Reuters.

How did the odds move?

At match71¢
+5m15¢
+30m29.5¢
+1h27.5¢
1h move-43.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 13, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 2¢ → 24¢+22 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 38.5¢ → 9¢-29.5 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 38¢ → 2.9¢-35.1 ptsafter a signal from welt.de

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

NeutralReuters97%match
Sweden Democrats Projected to Win 17.2% of Votes in Election vs 20.5% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll
NoReuters97%match
Rpt-Sweden Democrats Projected to Win 17.2% of Votes in Election vs 20.5% in 2022 - Public Broadcaster Svt Exit Poll

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 20% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES20¢
NO81¢

Vol$166K

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Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.