Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? Odds fell to 73% on Oct 9, 2026

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Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? On , the market’s odds fell from 81.5¢ to 73¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Scripps Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match81.5¢
+5m81.5¢
+30m72.5¢
+1h73¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoScripps Reporter97%match
NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district): • • Blake Gendebien (D) 46% • Anthony Constantino (R) 42% • Undecided 8% • • Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 82% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES82¢
NO19¢

Vol$37K

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Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for NY-21 House Election Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.