Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026? Odds fell to 4% on Oct 12, 2026
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Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 14.5¢ to 3.5¢ (-11 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Mark Zuckerberg.
How did the odds move?
14.5¢
14.5¢
14¢
3.5¢
-11 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
NoMark Zuckerberg96%match
It's been just over a year since we started Meta Superintelligence Labs. Muse Spark was our first family of models, and now Muse Wonder is a much larger and more advanced class of models that brings us to the frontier. • We're releasing two models today. Muse Wonder for fast frontier performance and Muse Wonder Full for the full version of the model.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 3% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES3¢
NO97¢
$3K
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Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 21, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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