Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? Odds fell to 0% on Aug 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? On , the market’s odds fell from 32.5¢ to 0.1¢ (-32.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match32.5¢
+5m0.1¢
+30m0.1¢
+1h0.1¢
1h move-32.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoReuters94%match
U.S. July Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Consensus 4.2%)

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$13K

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Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for July Unemployment Rate — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.