Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? Odds fell to 38% on Jul 17, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: Yes
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 46.5¢ to 38¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from dolfiniran. The market has since resolved Yes.
How did the odds move?
46.5¢
46¢
47¢
38¢
31¢
-8.5 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Yesdolfiniran94%match
19:52/ 16th of July
Yemen has begun its measures to block the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Initial warnings have been given to ships passing through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. In the past 48 hours, two ships have been hit off the coast of Oman and more warning shots have been fired. One ship has also been seized. A new arrangement has also been established on the opposite side of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. A decision will be made at the moment of zero.
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
$224K
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Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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