Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? Odds jumped to 97% on Sep 23, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? On , the market’s odds jumped from 88¢ to 96.5¢ (+8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from zerohedge. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match88¢
+5m93¢
+30m95.5¢
+1h96.5¢
1h move+8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralzerohedge94%match
*TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD RISES 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.99% • • At least there will be lots of demand for paper in today's 5Y auction

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$3K

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Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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