Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? Odds jumped to 97% on Sep 23, 2026

OpenMove

Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? On , the market’s odds jumped from 88¢ to 96.5¢ (+8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from zerohedge.

How did the odds move?

At match88¢
+5m93¢
+30m95.5¢
+1h96.5¢
1h move+8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralzerohedge94%match
*TREASURY 5-YEAR YIELD RISES 15 BASIS POINTS ON DAY TO 4.99% • • At least there will be lots of demand for paper in today's 5Y auction

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 96% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES96¢
NO5¢

Vol$3K

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Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% before 2027? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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