Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? Odds fell to 66% on Sep 24, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? On , the market’s odds fell from 85.8¢ to 66.2¢ (-19.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match85.8¢
+5m87.4¢
+30m57¢
+1h66.2¢
1h move-19.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralReuters95%match
Yield on 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds Hits Fresh 22-Year High at 5.4583% ; Last Up 4.85 Basis Points at 5.451%

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$11K

Follow this market

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.