Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? Odds jumped to 21% on Sep 23, 2026
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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 3.1¢ to 21.2¢ (+18.1 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from alarabiya_bn.
How did the odds move?
3.1¢
3.1¢
19.2¢
21.2¢
+18.1 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
What moved the odds?
Neutralalarabiya_bn94%match
US Treasury yields rose today after new data from the services and manufacturing sectors increased the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the two-year Treasury note jumped 8 basis points to 4.464%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 7 basis points to 5.058%, its highest level since July 2007. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note also increased by more than 4 basis points to 5.347%. The Standard & Poor's services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 58.7 in September, its highest level in nearly five years, compared to 56.5 in August. The manufacturing PMI also saw a significant increase to 56.7, its highest level in four years. #Arabic_Business
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 18% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES18¢
NO82¢
$6K
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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
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