Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September? Odds jumped to 73% on Sep 23, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September? On , the market’s odds jumped from 56.5¢ to 73¢ (+16.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Walter Bloomberg. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match56.5¢
+5m60¢
+30m56¢
+1h73¢
1h move+16.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 23, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 61.5¢ → 86¢+24.5 ptsafter a signal from abkt198990
  • 61.5¢ → 84.5¢+23 ptsafter a signal from alarabiya_bn

What moved the odds?

NeutralWalter Bloomberg96%match
THIRTY-YEAR TREASURY YIELD REACHES 5.367%, ON PACE FOR HIGHEST SETTLEMENT SINCE JUNE 2004

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$11K

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Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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