Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? Odds jumped to 13% on Aug 5, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 0.7¢ to 13.3¢ (+12.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from CNN Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match0.7¢
+5m0.7¢
+30m8.5¢
+1h13.3¢
+24h0.7¢
1h move+12.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 31.8¢ → 2.1¢-29.7 ptsafter a signal from nbcnews.com
  • 30.1¢ → 1.9¢-28.2 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter

What moved the odds?

NoCNN Reporter98%match
#MI13 Democratic primary: Rep. Shri Thanedar trails challenger Donovan McKinney by about 3,000 votes with 69% of the vote in. • • McKinney 51.7% • Thanedar 48.3

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$546

Follow this market

Will Shri Thanedar win the MI-13 Democratic primary by at least 16%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.