Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Odds fell to 10% on Aug 25, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? On , the market’s odds fell from 44¢ to 9.5¢ (-34.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match44¢
+5m42.5¢
+30m42.5¢
+1h9.5¢
1h move-34.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 25, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 42.5¢ → 1.8¢-40.7 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 11.5¢ → 0.4¢-11.1 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com
  • 11.5¢ → 0.4¢-11.1 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Regional divides were a major theme of the special Republican Senate primary in South Carolina two weeks ago, and that could continue in the runoff tonight between Representative Ralph Norman and Senator Darline Graham.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$1.3M

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Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.