Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Odds jumped to 28% on Aug 11, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? On , the market’s odds jumped from 17¢ to 28.5¢ (+11.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match17¢
+5m22.5¢
+30m23.5¢
+1h28.5¢
+24h23.5¢
1h move+11.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com98%match
Live: Two Republican congressmen are battling for a runoff spot with Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina: Representatives Russell Fry and Ralph Norman. Norman, a five-term congressman and hard-line conservative, gave up his House seat and came in third place in the primary for governor in June. The upside of that was that he was perhaps best positioned to run a statewide campaign just a few weeks later — this time for Senate — after Lindsey Graham died.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$1.3M

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Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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