Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Odds jumped to 75% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? On , the market’s odds jumped from 59.6¢ to 75¢ (+15.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from foxnews. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match59.6¢
+5m59.4¢
+30m74.1¢
+1h75¢
+24h81¢
1h move+15.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 59.4¢ → 76¢+16.6 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
  • 59.5¢ → 75.8¢+16.3 ptsafter a signal from Fox Reporter
  • 62.5¢ → 75.1¢+12.6 ptsafter a signal from Punchbowl Reporter
  • 64.1¢ → 75.5¢+11.4 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
  • 64.5¢ → 75.5¢+11 ptsafter a signal from NBC Reporter
  • 71¢ → 82.6¢+11.6 ptsafter a signal from nytimes.com

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesfoxnews95%match
"I'm in." • • Over a week after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. Darline Graham tells @seanhannity she's running for the full Senate term to replace her brother in South Carolina. • • "I have been praying a lot, talking to my family... I feel like I can do it. I feel an inner peace about it. Will it be difficult? Yes. Absolutely," Graham says after acknowledging there's "a tremendous amount of pressure" surrounding the decision.
Yeslivesquawk95%match
"I'm in." • • Over a week after the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham, Sen. Darline Graham tells @seanhannity she's running for the full Senate term to replace her brother in South Carolina. • • "I have been praying a lot, talking to my family... I feel like I can do it. I feel an inner peace about it. Will it be difficult? Yes. Absolutely," Graham says after acknowledging there's "a tremendous amount of pressure" surrounding the decision.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$2.4M

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Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.