Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? Odds fell to 49% on Aug 7, 2026

OpenMove

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 62.5¢ to 49¢ (-13.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from OpenAI CEO.

How did the odds move?

At match62.5¢
+5m60.5¢
+30m58.5¢
+1h49¢
+24h53.5¢
1h move-13.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoOpenAI CEO94%match
astra is a powerful model and we are working to make it generally available. • • we do not think it is a good strategy to keep powerful models to a chosen few. • • given its cyber capabilities, we need a little big longer to do do this safely. but hopefully not too long!

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 68% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES68¢
NO32¢

Vol$65K

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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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