Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? Odds fell to 81% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds fell from 92.5¢ to 80.5¢ (-12 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Russian Media - MOD. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match92.5¢
+5m92.5¢
+30m94.5¢
+1h80.5¢
1h move-12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 80.5¢ → 90¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from Ukrinform Agency

What moved the odds?

YesRussian Media - MOD97%match
Personnel disputes in Kyiv continue unabated: Ukrainian media claim that Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrsky will be fired today or tomorrow. There is no official confirmation yet. So far, this has been stated, in particular, by a former adviser to the former Minister of Defense of Ukraine Fedorov. Earlier, the FT, citing a source, wrote that Zelenskyy is considering the possibility of dismissing the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who is nicknamed "the butcher" in the troops. The publication noted that Zelenskyy is trying to find a way out of the largest crisis in the country's military leadership during his presidency. [in reply to: Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrskyy may be fired. Zelenskyy is considering this possibility amid protests against the resignation of Fedorov, who clashed with the commander-in-chief, the Financial Times reports. The head of the Kyiv regime is facing the largest military leadership crisis, the newspaper notes. "According to a senior administration official, Zelensky is gathering military commanders this weekend to hear their assessments of the situation on the battlefield and interview candidates for the post of army commander," the publication says. One of Zelensky's demands for a possible successor to Syrsky is to ensure a smooth transition of power and stability along the entire front, the publication writes. Rallies in support of Fedorov and against Syrsky are taking place in Ukraine for the third day. At Franko Square near Zelensky's office, people are chanting "Servant of the people, come out to the people." Video not loading? Watch in MAX]

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$169K

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Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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