Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%? Odds fell to 87% on Aug 31, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%? On , the market’s odds fell from 95.4¢ to 86.9¢ (-8.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from m.thepaper.cn. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match95.4¢
+5m95.4¢
+30m87.2¢
+1h86.9¢
1h move-8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralm.thepaper.cn95%match
News Distiller | Iceland's referendum rejected the resumption of EU accession negotiations; why did the public choose to say "no" to the EU?

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$2K

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Will "No" win the Icelandic EU membership negotiations referendum by 3–6%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Iceland EU Referendum: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.