Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? Odds fell to 9% on Aug 14, 2026

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? On Aug 14, 2026, 02:00 UTC, the market’s odds fell from 18¢ to 9¢ (-9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from news.sky.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

• Aug 14, 2026, 05:04 UTC8.5¢ → 0.2¢-8.3 ptsafter a signal from Reuters

What moved the odds?

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of Aug 30, 2026, 15:49 UTC.

Vol$127K

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Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.