Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? Odds fell to 0% on Aug 14, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? On , the market’s odds fell from 68¢ to 0.1¢ (-67.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters. The market has since resolved No.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 14, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 38.3¢ → 0.1¢-38.2 ptsafter a signal from bbc.com
- 15.9¢ → 0.1¢-15.8 ptsafter a signal from HuffPost Reporter
- 0.2¢ → 9.4¢+9.2 ptsafter a signal from ynet.co.il
What moved the odds?
Where does this market stand now?
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
$36K
Follow this market
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.
See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.