Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? Odds jumped to 53% on Aug 13, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 44.5¢ to 53.1¢ (+8.7 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from manchestereveningnews.co.uk. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match44.5¢
+5m45.4¢
+30m45.7¢
+1h53.1¢
1h move+8.7 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralmanchestereveningnews.co.uk98%match
Clacton by-election 2026 results in full as Nigel Farage hopes to regain seat

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$36K

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Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.