Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? Odds jumped to 34% on Aug 14, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 25.6¢ to 34.3¢ (+8.7 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from news.sky.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match25.6¢
+5m28.2¢
+30m34.4¢
+1h34.3¢
1h move+8.7 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Neutralnews.sky.com94%match
Live: Farage says he won't go to by-election count - as he claims 'overwhelming' win

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$213K

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Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote % — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.