Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? Odds fell to 3% on Jul 8, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? On , the market’s odds fell from 26.7¢ to 3¢ (-23.6 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from WSJ Reporter. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match26.7¢
+5m26.4¢
+30m21.3¢
+1h3¢
1h move-23.6 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NeutralWSJ Reporter99%match
The by-election is on. Nigel Farage cannot pull out now.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$90K

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Will Nigel Farage get second place in the Clacton by-election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Clacton by-election: 2nd place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.