Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Odds jumped to 75% on Sep 4, 2026

OpenMove

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? On , the market’s odds jumped from 37.5¢ to 75¢ (+37.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from ft.com.

How did the odds move?

At match37.5¢
+5m73¢
+30m74.5¢
+1h75¢
1h move+37.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

Yesft.com96%match
Anthropic close to awarding Morgan Stanley and Goldman top roles in $2tn IPO
YesReuters98%match
Anthropic Close to Awarding Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Top Roles in $2tn IPO - FT

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 41% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES41¢
NO59¢

Vol$13K

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Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.