Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? Odds fell to 20% on Sep 13, 2026

OpenMove

Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? On , the market’s odds fell from 65.5¢ to 20.3¢ (-45.2 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from theguardian.com.

How did the odds move?

At match65.5¢
+5m64.3¢
+30m25.4¢
+1h20.3¢
1h move-45.2 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Yestheguardian.com94%match
Live: It’s worth noting the Moderates gaining a lot in the SVT’s projection, moving up from 18.1% to 20.0%, well ahead of the far-right Sweden Democrats in third, at

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO93¢

Vol$34K

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Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.