Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Odds fell to 36% on Jul 12, 2026
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Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? On , the market’s odds fell from 58.5¢ to 35.5¢ (-23 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Reuters.
How did the odds move?
58.5¢
46¢
32.5¢
35.5¢
-23 pts
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Jul 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 57.5¢ → 35.5¢-22 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
- 49.5¢ → 35.5¢-14 ptsafter a signal from Fox Reporter
- 48.5¢ → 35.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from NewsNation Reporter
- 48.5¢ → 35.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from MS NOW Reporter
- 48.5¢ → 35.5¢-13 ptsafter a signal from Punchbowl Reporter
- 25.5¢ → 33.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from CNN Reporter
- 25¢ → 33.5¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from Scripps Reporter
- 25¢ → 34¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Politico Reporter
- 24.5¢ → 34¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from ABC Reporter
What moved the odds?
NoReuters99%match
U.S. Senator McConnell: I’ll Keep Working Hard to Get Back on the Senate Floor as Soon as Possible
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO88¢
$1.5M
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Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.