Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Odds jumped to 75% on Jul 6, 2026

OpenMoveJul 6, 2026, 20:24 UTC

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? On Jul 6, 2026, 20:24 UTC, the market’s odds jumped from 63¢ to 75¢ (+12 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 2-source news cluster, from NBC Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match63¢

+5m63.5¢

+30m69.5¢

+1h75¢

+24h58¢

1h move+12 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

Part of a 2-source news cluster, first seen Jul 6, 2026, 20:24 UTC. The triggering signal is listed first.

YesNBC Reporter99%match

Mitch McConnell remains hospitalized after more than three weeks

Jul 6, 2026, 20:24 UTC

Yesnbcnews.com99%match

Mitch McConnell remains hospitalized after more than three weeks

Jul 6, 2026, 20:20 UTC

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of Aug 30, 2026, 21:58 UTC.

YES13¢

NO88¢

Vol$1.5M

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Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.