Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? Odds jumped to 99% on Oct 12, 2026

OpenMove

Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 90.5¢ to 99¢ (+8.5 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 3-source news cluster, from Russian Media.

How did the odds move?

At match90.5¢
+5m99.5¢
+30m90.1¢
+1h99¢
1h move+8.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Oct 12, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 90.5¢ → 99¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from cls.cn
  • 90.5¢ → 99¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from franceinfo.fr
  • 90.6¢ → 99¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from rtl.fr
  • 90.6¢ → 99¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from News
  • 90.6¢ → 99¢+8.5 ptsafter a signal from rfi.fr
  • 90.1¢ → 99.1¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Ukrainian Public Broadcaster
  • 90.1¢ → 99.1¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Belarus State News Agency
  • 90.1¢ → 99.1¢+9 ptsafter a signal from Russian state TV
  • 90.1¢ → 99.1¢+9 ptsafter a signal from yomiuri.co.jp

What moved the odds?

Part of a 3-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.

YesRussian Media98%match
Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford have been awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics. They were awarded the award "for their development of the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization." The Nobel Committee announced this decision. In 2025, the Nobel laureates in economics were American Joel Mokyr, Frenchman Philippe Aghion, and Canadian Peter Howitt. They received the prize for the theory of sustainable growth through creative destruction. The monetary component of the Nobel Prize in each nomination this year will be 12 million kroner ($1.2 million). NobelPrize Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
YesRussian Media98%match
Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford have been awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics. The Nobel Committee announced this. They were awarded the prize "for their development of the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization." Photo: NobelPrize / X RBK Channel on "Max"
YesRussian Media98%match
Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford have been awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics. The Nobel Committee announced this. They were awarded the prize "for their development of the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization." Photo: NobelPrize / X

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 99% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES99¢
NO1¢

Vol$5K

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Will Michael Woodford win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Nobel Economics Prize Winner 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.