Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election? Odds jumped to 22% on Aug 19, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election? On , the market’s odds jumped from 7.4¢ to 22.3¢ (+14.9 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match7.4¢
+5m46.4¢
+30m46.4¢
+1h22.3¢
+24h7.7¢
1h move+14.9 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 46.4¢ → 13.5¢-32.9 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Neutralnytimes.com97%match
Live: The two candidates in California’s special election also faced each other in the June primary, when Aisha Wahab received 43 percent of the vote, compared with 17 percent for Melissa Hernandez. But AIPAC and other outside groups have recently spent millions of dollars supporting Hernandez and attacking Wahab, and the race is now expected to be much closer.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$38K

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Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for CA-14 Special Election Winner? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.