Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? Odds fell to 6% on Aug 19, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? On , the market’s odds fell from 39.6¢ to 5.8¢ (-33.8 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from nytimes.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match39.6¢
+5m31.2¢
+30m37.9¢
+1h5.8¢
1h move-33.8 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Aug 19, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 21.2¢ → 0.4¢-20.8 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)
  • 9.8¢ → 0.4¢-9.4 ptsafter a signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ)

What moved the odds?

Yesnytimes.com98%match
Live: Polls are closing in Wyoming, a ruby red state, where all eyes are on the Republican primaries to replace Senator Cynthia Lummis and Gov. Mark Gordon, which are expected to produce their successors. In the Senate race, President Trump has endorsed Representative Harriet Hageman, a lawyer who unseated former Representative Liz Cheney in 2022. The president backs Megan Degenfelder, the state superintendent of public instruction, in the governor’s race. Both are aligned with the conservative wing of the Republican Party and are competing against more moderate opponents.

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$119K

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Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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