Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? Odds jumped to 26% on Jul 7, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 16¢ to 26¢ (+10 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from bfmtv.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match16¢
+5m18.5¢
+30m18.5¢
+1h26¢
+24h93.7¢
1h move+10 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 7, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 16¢ → 26¢+10 ptsafter a signal from bfmtv.com
  • 22.5¢ → 96.4¢+73.9 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 22¢ → 98.8¢+76.8 ptsafter a signal from bbc.com
  • 22¢ → 98.8¢+76.8 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 22¢ → 98.8¢+76.8 ptsafter a signal from bfmtv.com
  • 23¢ → 96.2¢+73.2 ptsafter a signal from bbc.com
  • 25.5¢ → 98.4¢+72.9 ptsafter a signal from theguardian.com
  • 25¢ → 99.1¢+74.1 ptsafter a signal from 47news.jp
  • 24.5¢ → 98.6¢+74.1 ptsafter a signal from Channel 12 (N12)
  • 24¢ → 98.6¢+74.6 ptsafter a signal from Reuters
  • 16¢ → 98.5¢+82.5 ptsafter a signal from n12news
  • 17¢ → 98.5¢+81.5 ptsafter a signal from afp

What moved the odds?

Neutralbfmtv.com99%match
Live: Different possible scenarios for Marine Le Pen before the decision of the Paris Court of Appeal

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$111K

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Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.