Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? Odds jumped to 61% on Jul 20, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 40¢ to 60.5¢ (+20.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from theguardian.com. The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match40¢
+5m65.5¢
+30m53.5¢
+1h60.5¢
1h move+20.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Jul 20, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 18¢ → 1.5¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from bbc.com
  • 18¢ → 1.5¢-16.5 ptsafter a signal from Guardian Reporter

What moved the odds?

Neutraltheguardian.com97%match
Live: John Healey , the former defence secretary, is making his way up Downing Street and enters No 10. The media ask him what job he’s in line for. He does not answe

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$56K

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Will John Healey be the next Defence Secretary of the UK in 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

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