Will JD Vance say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention? Odds jumped to 100% on Sep 11, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will JD Vance say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention? On , the market’s odds jumped from 89.5¢ to 100¢ (+10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from aljazeera.com. The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match89.5¢
+5m89.5¢
+30m91.5¢
+1h100¢
1h move+10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 11, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 91.5¢ → 99.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Washington Examiner Reporter
  • 91.5¢ → 99.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Washington Examiner Reporter
  • 91.5¢ → 99.5¢+8 ptsafter a signal from Washington Examiner Reporter

What moved the odds?

Yesaljazeera.com98%match
Live: Vance to talk fatherhood, Charlie Kirk in convention speech

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$4K

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Will JD Vance say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during RNC Convention? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.