Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%? Odds fell to 1% on Jul 22, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: NoMove

Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%? On , the market’s odds fell from 13.3¢ to 1¢ (-12.3 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved No.

How did the odds move?

At match13.3¢
+5m13.1¢
+30m3.9¢
+1h1¢
+24h0.2¢
1h move-12.3 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

NoDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 65% in): Arizona US House 1 Republican Primary • • Jay Feely (R): 31,156 (49.4%) • Joseph Chaplik (R): 22,193 (35.2%) • John Trobough (R): 9,697 (15.4%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

Vol$2K

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Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by at least 25%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.