Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%? Odds jumped to 35% on Jul 22, 2026

ResolvedOutcome: YesMove

Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%? On , the market’s odds jumped from 22.7¢ to 35¢ (+12.4 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Decision Desk (DDHQ). The market has since resolved Yes.

How did the odds move?

At match22.7¢
+5m39.1¢
+30m37.4¢
+1h35¢
+24h95¢
1h move+12.4 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

What moved the odds?

YesDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match
DDHQ Race Update (est. 65% in): Arizona US House 1 Republican Primary • • Jay Feely (R): 31,156 (49.4%) • Joseph Chaplik (R): 22,193 (35.2%) • John Trobough (R): 9,697 (15.4%) • • Follow more results here: •

Where does this market stand now?

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

Vol$5K

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Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.